How Many PC Deaths Before Party Reaches 2nd Level?

[Deleted]

Assuming an impartial referee who fairly stocks a dungeon and doesn't fudge any rolls and characters who check for traps and run when they should . . . then in your experience, how many characters are doomed to die before the party accumulates enough wealth and monster kills to have enough experience points earned to reach 2nd level as characters?

Would you say that only 1 or 2 characters will die before the party reaches 2nd level?

Would you say that at least 1 character per player will die before the party reaches 2nd level?

How about 2 or 3 deaths per player?

Far more deaths?

No deaths?

[dwayanu]

One answer -- with a big "YMMV" -- is that about 75% of the time, a player might expect to lose 1-2 characters before one attains second level. About 95% of the time, he can expect to lose no more than 4-5. Very rarely, his first one makes it. That seems (more or less, depending on player skill) to match what I've observed in games I referee. It's also (perhaps just coincidentally) in line with ...


... this (very, very!) rough estimate (note the first word):

Assume that a typical first-level character has a 50% chance of getting hit in a fight, and a 50% chance of getting killed if hit. That comes to a 25% chance of demise per fight. Of course, the particulars of a given fight can make a huge difference. The chance of getting hit in the first place generally goes down if the party is strong enough relative to foes not to endanger all its members each fight. On the other hand, that means a smaller share of what may not be a bigger haul of experience points.

So much depends on the distribution of treasure that any estimate made in ignorance of that is pretty flimsy. Let's assume that it follows the guidelines at Vol. 3, p.7. The overall average treasure value is nowhere near as relevant as the fact that most of the value is in the richest 10% or so -- those with gems and/or jewelry. In fact, jewelry vastly outweighs all else combined!

Caveat: I offer no guarantee as to the accuracy of my hasty calculations.

Ignoring (because I'm too lazy to consider it now) the chance for gems to get "upgraded" in value after the first roll, the average stash is worth about 870 GP (including usual presence of gold and silver as well). The average hoard of jewelry (plus coin) is worth a whopping 11, 988 GP! The remaining 90% or so of treasures average about 53 GP each. I'm leaving aside magic items because (for a start) there's no precise rule as to their XP value.

Figuring an average of 2,000 XP per character to attain second level, it looks as if one average jewelry-laden treasure (plus XP for slaying monster guardians) would do it for a typical party of six. A party of 8 able to make a beeline to that prize might expect 2 KIA (more or less, depending on how tough the monsters are).

That kind of "in and out" One Big Score is an unlikely start to a character's career, though.

In the long term, assuming all treasures are found, there will be an average of about 1,824 GP worth of plunder between discoveries of the "gold rings." That plus monster-slaying might be enough for a duo, if they survive. Sometimes, repetitions of that sort of "get it all" expedition (generally with larger parties) suffice to get some characters to 2nd level. Most often, leveling up depends on surviving to get in on one of the big hauls; the rest is just icing on the cake.

Let's say that on average the big treasure is the 20th encountered (per the 5% chance for jewelry). That's on average 72 rooms:12 with treasure-less monsters, 12 with monsters and treasure, 8 with hidden or trapped treasure and 40 "empty."

Now, let's suppose the party manages to avoid all traps and wandering monsters, and fights only when taken by surprise (and the monsters are not), until it reaches the Big One. That leaves 23 chances of party-only surprise, at 22.22% each: let's say 5 fights. Using our first "guesstimate" (and reminding ourselves that's all it is), we get a 23.7% chance of surviving straight through to the big fight. Adding the chance of surviving that, we get 17.8%.

[coffee]

I'm on my third character in Makofan's game, and none have made 2nd level yet!

But I'm still on my first in Calithena's game, and he's 2nd already.

So I'd say it varies...

[makofan]

Normally, I have about half the party make second level. Currently, I seem to be having problems keeping players alive ...

[coffee]

Jul 21, 2008 9:30:26 GMT -6 makofan said:

Normally, I have about half the party make second level. Currently, I seem to be having problems keeping players alive ...

Normally (i.e.; at the table), we'd be able to see the look on your face when we did something incredibly stupid.

[jjarvis]

About 1 in 4 1st level characters die in my games.

Over the life of a long lived campaign it is highly unusual to have more then 1 or 2 characters surviving from the intial session into the third year of gaming.

[scogle]

Jul 21, 2008 13:24:07 GMT -6 jjarvis said:

About 1 in 4 1st level characters die in my games.

Over the life of a long lived campaign it is highly unusual to have more then 1 or 2 characters surviving from the intial session into the third year of gaming.

One of the greatest things about OD&D, right there.

[Deleted]

Not really easy for me to nail down - it varies tremendously. For the sake of offering conjecture, I'd have to say "1 in 3".

But personally, I find more PC deaths occuring from 6th to 9th level, on average, than any other level spread...

[jjarvis]

Jul 26, 2008 2:36:54 GMT -6 @oltekos said:

But personally, I find more PC deaths occuring from 6th to 9th level, on average, than any other level spread...

I've been suspecting as much myself. PCs are in truth just as fragile against some threats as they were against others at 1st level but have forgotten how to play it safe unless they are run by genuinely skilled players.

[Deleted]

I think that the above just about sums it up. IMC the first adventure for a completely new group of experienced players could be a TPK (rarely) or all survive (rare but more often than TPK's) or out of a party of 8 each encounter will often result in 1 or 2 deaths for all first levels. Out of 8 characters starting at first level I would expect on average for 2 of them to make second level.

[oldgeezer]

Now, about 1 in 3.

I have long ago weeded out the incautious.

[redpriest]

I'm stumped on how to answer this one, other than to say that sometimes there are no PC deaths prior to second level and at other times there are TPKs and/or many deaths before any character attains 2nd level. As for arriving at what the average number of 1st level kills may be in my games, I don't know.